The significance of stock-to-flow
The graph above shows a correlation between bitcoin reward halving and the price of bitcoin, mapped by year and counting down until the next halvening event that will occur May 2020. Most importantly, the price appears to follow the Stock-to-flow macroeconomic model.
The SF model displays a price uptrend. Notably, as the halvening is expected to reduce sell pressure on the supply side. A lack of interest from sellers could help the price climb upwards from its current levels.
However, these kinds of rallies are stymied by a lack of selling pressure rather than interest from buyers, and can quickly climb into overbought levels followed by a sharp downside correction.
The halvening countdown
Bitcoin block reward halvings occur roughly once every four years. Each time the network halves the network reduces the mining reward by 50 percent. At present, miners are rewarded with 12.5 BTC each time a block is mined. By May 2020, that number will be halved down 6.25 BTC.
There are less than 390 days to go.
As Bitcoinist has reported previously, the price of Bitcoin seems to rally one year after the ‘halvening’ event occurs. In fact, there appears to be a direct correlation between the price of bitcoin and halvening events that cannot be ignored.
There have been other models used to predict the price of Bitcoin that pushes the price of Bitcoin higher — except on a more futuristic timescale.
For instance, a $1 trillion market cap was predicted for Bitcoin after the halving that will occur in 2020 implying a price of $55,000.
However, the price of bitcoin could climb to even higher levels in 2023. A “massive rally” could push the coin to the astronomical price of $10 million dollars. This figure was taken from the model that prices seem to increase bi-laterally, as well as hash rate, which analyst, Max Keiser says “never left” the bull market.
Given these theories, we can expect the next halvening event to be a major cornerstone in Bitcoin’s history and have a significant impact on the currency’s evaluation. How high bitcoin’s price will climb is still up to debate, but the consensus overall is that we can expect higher prices than what we’re seeing now as shown by previous halvings and bitcoin stock to flow.